Surprise Should Come From the Upside Case Only

If your investments are good only because of future optimism, you will have surprises in the downside case. If your investments are good without optimism required then you will be surprised in the upside case.

One way to avoid being surprised by the downside case is to avoid losers rather than pick winners. However, it might be just as important to protect against the downside by enjoying every bit of the upside.

From Howard Marks at Oaktree.

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