We’re starting to see news outlets say there is an alarming trend where vaccinated people are getting COVID-19 (such as this one from the WSJ). This is an example of base rate fallacy—in a population with a high vaccination rate it is inevitable that new cases include vaccinated people (especially in a country like Israel with extremely high vaccination rate). We should not take that to mean vaccines are suddenly ineffective (they’re not).
Links to this note
CDC data shows that 74 percent of breakthrough COVID-19 cases are among adults 65 or older and make up the vast majority of vaccinated people that are hospitalized.