COVID-19

A corona virus that became a global pandemic. The number of cases has surpassed 2MM and over 500 thousand people have died (at time of writing).

Besides a health crisis, COVID-19 also created an economic crisis as countries shut down and placed restrictions on gatherings of people and whether businesses could operate.

Links to this note

• Zoom Fatigue

  Being on video conference calls repeatedly is exhausting. This phenomena is believed to be caused by the brain working overtime because we can tell the other person is an imperfect projection and reading body language is difficult.

• Share of Remote Workers Fell from 35% to 11%

  The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported the share of remote workers fell from 35% to 11% from May 2020 to October 2021. Data is collected as part of the Current Population Survey to estimate the impact of COVID-19 on the workforce.

• Organizational Support of Remote Work Correlates With Reported Productivity

  In a recent study looking at the impact of remote work during the COVID-19 pandemic found that perception of organizational support for remote work correlates with higher reported productivity and gains in productive working time. This is in contrast to those that perceive low support for remote work as having a negative impact on productive working time and indicating greater depression symptoms.

• Zoonotic Virus

  A virus that passes from animals to humans. Examples include: SARS, Swine Flu, and COVID-19.

• Permanent Moves from SF Have Fallen to Pre-Pandemic Levels

  Much has been written about a great migration out of San Francisco. The population shrank by 1.4% between July 2019 to July 2020, but like most moves during the COVID-19 pandemic, they were within the same metro area. As the economy recovers, San Francisco and San Mateo counties added 17,200 jobs.

• Vaccinated People Have a 50% Lower Risk of Developing Long COVID

  According to recent studies in the UK, Israel, and US, those who are vaccinated have, on average, a 50% lower risk of developing long COVID.

• Activities We Relied on for Relief from Every Day Stress and Anxiety Are No Longer Available to Us

  In the new normal brought on by COVID-19, typical activities that we rely on to recover and recharge are not available anymore due to the economic shutdown. For example, socializing with friends at a restaurant or going to the gym.

• Pickup-Only Stores Are the Future for Fast Food and Drinks

  In Manhattan, I found a Starbucks that was pick-up only and you had to order online. It had no seating, just a counter to pick up your order. It didn’t even have a cash register.

• 45% of Jobs Can Be Done Remotely

  Merging data from the Occupational Information Network (O*NET), National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (NLSY79) round 16, and American Time Use Survey (ATUS) shows that an estimated 45% of jobs (~67MM based on number of employed citizens) in the US can be done remotely. However, prior to the pandemic only 10% of workers who could work remotely actually did (the takeup rate).

• Growth in Tech During the Pandemic Was Not Permanent

  Prices of tech stocks soared during the COVID-19 global pandemic in part due to growth. Investors were paying 100x ARR multiples for some tech companies. However, that growth was not permanent and we are seeing tech stock prices revert to the mean.

• Attractive Students Receive Better Grades

  A study that looked into the effects of remote learning on grades found that attractive students, both male and female, received better grades during in-person education than remote due to COVID-19. It also found that the effect of better grades for attractive male students persisted while the premium on grades for attractive female students dissipated.

• Remote Work Is Not Necessarily Better for the Environment

  While not having to commute is equivalent pay raise, it’s not necessarily better for the environment.

• Deaths Per Day in the US Due to COVID-19 Is More Than Twice That of WWII

  There are more people in the U.S. dying of COVID-19 per day than WWII and the number of total deaths will likely exceed the total U.S. combat deaths from WWII.

• 25% of All Job Postings Are Premanently Remote

  According to the Q1 2022 survey by Ladders, 24% of all job posting in the US and Canada are now for permanent remote positions—an increase from 18% in Q4 2021 or roughly 3MM jobs.

• Applications for New Businesses Are up 20 Percent

  In 2021, 5.4 million applications for new businesses were filed. This rise in entrepreneurial activity coincides with the Great Resignation and the COVID-19 global pandemic where people are re-evaluating their relationship with work.

• The Further from the Self, the Less Real it Feels

  The realest thing to anyone is themselves. The further from the self the less real things feel. For example, we know about the stars and distant galaxies but the fly buzzing our ear is more important and “real” as to steal our attention. While we have the power to imagine great things and empathize, direct experience is more important because it involves the “I”. Our wants, needs, and desires exceed the realness of all else.

• COVID-19 Infection Reduces Grey Matter Thickness in Parts of the Brain

  A preliminary study of brain imaging taken of before COVID-19 infection and after showed a reduced amount of gray matter thickness in the frontal and temporal lobes. This seems to explain some of the symptoms like loss of smell and taste (associated with the olfactory bulb) as well as other side effects like memory loss.

• Breakthrough COVID-19 Cases Are 74% Adults 65 or Older

  CDC data shows that 74 percent of breakthrough COVID-19 cases are among adults 65 or older and make up the vast majority of vaccinated people that are hospitalized.

• 14% of US Adults Have Had Long Covid

  A Household Pulse Survey (HPS) found that more than 14% of US adults have or had Long COVID. Across all age groups, the 40-49 year old had the highest percentage at 18.8%. This could indicate a staggeringly large number of people will have lasting health issues due to COVID-19 and was a key contributer to the labor shortages in 2022.

• Clinical Trials of the COVID-19 Vaccine Was Not Designed to Discover the Optimal Regimen for Public Health

  To get the COVID-19 vaccine approved quickly, companies focused on proving the efficacy. They did not run trials to find the optimal dosage or storage to maximize public health. For example, delaying the second dose, fractional dosing, removing freezer temperature requirements are all ways of increasing the distribution and reaching herd immunity faster.

• In-Person Selling Fell from 61 Percent to 29 Percent

  Before COVID-19, the majority of B2B selling happened in-person and over email and phone calls (61%). After, only 29% of selling is being done that way and sales over video calls increased from 38% to 53%. Also, 70% of B2B buyers say they are willing to make purchases above $50,000 entirely remotely (27% would be willing to make purchases above $500k).

• 4.3 Million People Quit Their Job in August 2021

  The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that 4.3 MM Americans quit their jobs in August 2021, up from 4MM in July. The quit rate is highest it’s been since the statistic became available in 2000.

• 90% of the Population Needs to Be Vaccinated for Herd Immunity from the Delta Variant

  Because the COVID-19 Delta variant is much more transmissible (translating to a higher R rate of 50-100% higher than a year ago) and mRNA vaccines are 90% effective, we need 90% of the population to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity. Unfortunately that seems unlikely due to the politicization of the vaccine.

• News Diet

  A news diet is intentionally limiting yourself to certain quantities and outlets for news and media. This might help maintain focus throughout the day and improve mental health.

• Breaking the Bonds on Me Is Going to Liberate Everyone Else

  A distinctly American idea is that liberating oneself will result in the liberation of everyone else. This helps explain teenage rebellion (the whole system is broken so I’ll be a nonconformist and everyone else will follow), but also the behavior of anti-maskers (I value my freedom to decide what’s best so I’ll be loud about not wearing a mask and show everyone). While outwardly projecting a message that this is good for everyone, it’s deeply rooted in selfishness.

• Remote Workers Are Increasingly Choosing Not to Work from the Office

  A Pew Research Center Survey found that 61% of remote workers who have a company office say it’s their choice not to work from there. This is significant because the prior reason for working remotely was 38% of people said it was because their workplace was closed.

• Employers of Remote Workers Are Unsure They Are Remitting Taxes Correctly

  Due to COVID-19, employees are spread throughout the country and moving around. This is a challenge for employers who are obligated to pay taxes in the jurisdictions their employees are working. Remote native companies and companies that support a growing remote workforce will continue to face this challenge.

• COVID-19 Can Cause Brain Damage and Cause Neurological Symptoms

  A paper published in Nature looked at brain autopsies of people that died from COVID-19. Brain endothelial cells were found to be infected and there was an increase in string vessels (lost capillaries).

• IQ Loss from COVID-19 Infection

  A study of over 100,000 people in England found that found that cognitive deficits from COVID-19 infection (memory, reasoning and executive function) were similar between those whose symptoms resolved in less than 4 weeks and 12 weeks but were larger in those who had unresolved persistent symptoms (long COVID).

• Half of the US Workforce Works Remotely at Least Some Days Per Week

  A working paper from Stanford Digital Economy Lab studying the differences between attempts at measuring the number of US workers that work remotely found that half of US workers work remotely at least some days per week.

• COVID-19 Omicron Variant of Concern

  The World Health Organization (WHO) classified B.1.1.529 (omicron), first detected in South Africa, as a COVID-19 variant of concern.

• Complacency Comes from Mistakenly Believing Success Is Assured

  Companies on a clear upward trajectory can still fail not from external threats, but from complacency of the people running and operating the company. This happens when they mistakenly believe success is assured, but empirically this is not true (plenty of examples of industry darlings getting big and going under).

• Robinhood Momentum Algorithm

  Robinhood is linked to recent events like the stock price of Hertz skyrocketing despite going bankrupt or Kodak jumping 1,000% on news of a pivot to drug manufacturing. By displaying stocks other users are buying/have bought (a simple way of consumerizing stock picking), they’ve inadvertently created a ‘momentum algorithm’ that, simply by displaying popularity more people buy and drive the price up.

• COVID-19 Vaccine Is 33 Percent Effective Against Omicron

  A study of 211,000 COVID-19 cases and 78,000 Omicron variant cases found that the vaccine is only 33% effective at preventing infection by 70% effective at preventing hospitalization.

• NYC Mandates Employee Vaccination for Large Employers

  In anticipation of a wave of cases due to the COVID-19 omicron variant, NYC requires private employers with 100 or more employees to mandate vaccination for in-person workers. Every worker must have their first vaccine does by December 27, 2021.

• Collateralized Loan Obligations

  A financial instrument that spreads the risk of corporate loans across many investors. The money is loaned to companies that typically can’t raise money otherwise e.g. through a traditional bank loan.

• Remote Work Hasn’t Prevented People from Getting Omicron

  While remote work is obviously better for reducing exposure to COVID-19 than going to the office, the rapid increase in Omicron cases shows that remote work has little impact on reducing Omicron case counts. Anecdotally, several people I’ve worked with over the last two weeks have gotten it—all vaccinated and working from home.

• § What I Learned 2022

  Outline for my annual essay about things I learned and reflections for the year.

• The Great Resignation

  More people in the US have quit their job in 2021 then ever before (since it started being tracked). COVID-19 made people re-evaluate whether or not their jobs were worth it—many have decided to change jobs are quit altogether, especially in retail and food services.

• The COVID-19 Delta Variant Is 60% More Transmissible Than the Alpha Variant

  A mutation of COVID-19 is spreading quickly throughout the world and threatens recovery efforts. The Alpha variant is believed to be 50% more transmissible than other local COVID-19 types. The Delta variant is 60% more transmissible than the Alpha variant.

• COVID-19 Is a Vehicle of Fantasmic Projection

  The virus and pandemic of COVID-19 serves as a container for people to project their own fears, beliefs, and ascribed meaning. For example, some take COVID-19 as a sign from Mother Nature that we are overstepping and it is some sort of balancing. These are highly irrational interpretations—viruses are by definition not a living thing—and so it is more of a vehicle for one’s ideology.

• Base Rate Fallacy Shows How Headlines About COVID-19 Infections of Vaccinated People Is Overblown

  We’re starting to see news outlets say there is an alarming trend where vaccinated people are getting COVID-19 (such as this one from the WSJ). This is an example of base rate fallacy—in a population with a high vaccination rate it is inevitable that new cases include vaccinated people (especially in a country like Israel with extremely high vaccination rate). We should not take that to mean vaccines are suddenly ineffective (they’re not).

• Drinking Alone Is a Distinctly American Phenomenon

  During the rapid expansion westward in America between 1790 and 1830, the average adult drank more than nine gallons of spirits per year. Most were drinking to get drunk and most of the drinking was done at home due to isolation on the frontier. Even in the eastern cities, industrialization caused widespread loneliness and anxiety from labor changes.

• Decoupling Work and Place

  One of the silver linings of the COVID-19 pandemic is that work and place are decoupling is increasing the radius of economic opportunity. Previously, where you live and where you work were tightly coupled, but with the rise of remote work, more jobs can be done in more places.

• American Values Are Incompatible With Managing the Pandemic

  It’s unfortunate American values and belief systems are incompatible with successfully managing the COVID-19 pandemic. We resent or measures that are effective, but inhibit our freedoms or are even mildly inconvenient (social distancing, wearing a mask).

• Remote Work Will Become a Political Issue

  Up to this point in the COVID-19 pandemic, remote work has been a buoy keeping many parts of the economy afloat. We’ve seen that working from home was so successful and fears of loss of productivity were unfounded. Now we are starting to see a reactionary movement that will find it’s way into political agendas—how to get workers back in the office.

• Remote Work Is a Supply Side Problem

  There has always been strong demand for remote work and it wasn’t until the global COVID-19 pandemic that the supply side (employers) briefly caught up.

• Half of COVID-19 Survivors Had Lingering Symptoms After 1 Year

  A study in China of COVID-19 survivors (median age 59) who were hospitalized found that half had a persisting symptom one year later—Long COVID. That includes shortness of breath, fatigue, and mental health issues such as anxiety depression. It also found a higher prevalence of problems with mobility and pain and discomfort than the control group.

• Delaying the Second Dose of the Pfizer Vaccine Results in 3x the Antibodies

  According to a recent study, people over the age of 80 that were given the second dose of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine 12 weeks after the first dose ended up with over three times as many antibodies after the second dose. While this study was only for the Pfizer vaccine it could significantly change the vaccination strategy of many countries.

• The Overton Window of Employment

  There is a range of acceptable employer policies that ranges from unthinkable to popular. During the COVID-19 pandemic, previously radical employment policies such as work-anywhere became sensible and then accelerated in popularity.

• Minority Job Candidates Are Significantly More Worried About Being Able to Work Remotely

  According to a recent survey by WayUp that measured how job seekers felt in the current COVID-19 job climate, Black and Hispanic/Latino job seekers were 145% more likely to be concerned about being capable of doing a job remotely compared to White job seekers. Lack of physical space, access to broadband, and having more people in the household are contributing factors.

• § What I Learned 2020

  COVID-19

• Share of Remote Job Postings Increased Post Pandemic

  The share of remote job postings across the US, UK, NZ, CA, and AUS have increased since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. The following chart was reweighted based on occupation distribution in 2019.

• OSHA Mandate-or-Test Workplace Vaccine Rule Pushes COVID-19 Prevention onto Employers

  OSHA issued an emergency temporary standard (ETS) that requires large employers (100+ employees) to enforce COVID-19 vaccination and testing. This is a major step in mandating vaccination although it does leave open the possibility of getting a weekly negative COVID-19 test instead.

• Not Having to Commute for Five Hours Is Equivalent to a 10 Percent Raise

  In 2019, Americans spent an average of 55.2 minutes per day commuting. During the COVID-19 pandemic, remote workers have completely eliminated morning commutes which is like a 10% raise (or higher if you are like 10% of Americans that commute two hours per day). The monetary value of saved commuting time would be equivalent to the largest tax cuts for the middle class ever.

• 89 Percent of Employees Said They Experienced Occupational Burnout in the past Year

  A survey by Visier found that 89% of employees experienced burnout in the past year. The primary factors that contributed were workload (being asked to do more work, faster, work-life balance), culture (toxic workplace, micromanagement, lack of support from managers or co-workers), and world events (COVID-19 pandemic, police brutality, climate change).

• The US Army Developed a Vaccine Effective Against All Variants of COVID-19

  Now in clinical trials, Walter Reed researchers have developed a vaccine that appears to be effective against all strains COVID-19. Since our primary defence against COVID has been vaccination, this is a huge boon with the rise of a highly contagious omicron variant with vaccine escape (Pfizer and Moderna).