Making complicated things seem simple involves abstracting over reality in such a way that is clear and actionable. Often times, that means reducing things down to one number going up or down. People are drawn to (fixated even) clarity of a single number going up or down.
For example, your weight captures a high degree of nuance at low fidelity—it could go up or down for a myriad reasons—but provides clarity in a way that tracking dozens of bio-metrics does not. If it starts to go up, you might look at it with concern, if it goes down, you might celebrate this as a victory.
We see this desire for one number everywhere. A stock price that grossly encapsulates a company’s value and the market’s psychology. The score in a baseball game indicates who is winning and who is losing. The Earth’s average temperature rising indicating catastrophic climate change.
See also:
- Trends are not explanations so drawing lines from a single number going up or down rarely leads to good predictions in the long run
- Another example of how convenience is king and elegance is a heuristic guide to truth
Links to this note
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People Don’t Expect Much from Simple Ideas
People tend to think impressive results must come from impressively complicated means and effort. We underestimate the power of simple ideas and overestimate complications.