The understanding of knowledge and distinguishing between truth and beliefs.
Knowing how we know what we know is vital to thinking clearly about problems and coming up with the right solution. For example, understanding the underlying assumptions being made and systematically validating them is the epistemology of the lean startup movement.
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Extrapolating from past data points is not an explanation. Building your confidence that something that will happen—like Bayes Theorem—is useful for descrete, observable problems, but fails to reveal the truth. It’s the equivalent of saying “because it’s always been that way” which is a flawed way of reasoning about the world.
Like software bugs, strategy bugs are a failure of understanding of how the real world and what you created. Also similarly, they have varying degrees of severity—some which should be solved right away and some which can slowly accumulate without significant harm.
Written by David Deutsch.
The Münchhausen trilemma occurs when attempting to prove anything to be true. Such attempts fall into three tropes—a circular argument which is supported by itself (A <-> B), a regressive argument where the proof requires further proof infinitely (“why?” x infinity), and a dogmatic argument which relies on an assertion which is not defended (“because”).
A parochial error happens when you falsely believe that something in your narrow view of the world applies more broadly than it does. For example, thinking the seasons everywhere around the earth in the same way as your home town because that’s what you personally experience.
Richard Feynman said about science that, “The first principle is that you must not fool yourself, and you are the easiest person to fool.”