A ‘back of the napkin’ estimate that can be quite accurate. By estimating multiple variables somewhat accurately and both underestimating and overestimating, the variables tend to balance out and result in accuracy within an order of magnitude. This is usually enough to get a general idea of the problem and solution which is useful, similar to dimensional analysis like Big O Notation.
See also:
- A famous Fermi estimation is of the Drake equation known as the Fermi paradox
- An estimation aids in understanding similar to projections onto different dimensions
Links to this note
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Time Saved Using Keyboard Shortcuts
I use Alfred to switch between applications using keyboard shortcuts. On average, I use Alfred 127 times per day, mostly to use keyboard shortcuts.
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The impact of storms can be measured by the status Waffle House in 1,600 locations from the mid-Atlantic to Florida and across the Gulf Coast. It’s well-known that Waffle House remains open despite nasty weather conditions. So much so that there is a scale of red to green of Waffle House open-ness that’s a decent Fermi estimate for how FEMA should respond to the aftermath of a storm.
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Being able to programmatically generate content for search engine optimization is only useful if you have a lot of keywords you can target (thousands) and pages you can generate to rank for them.
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GDP Declined by $181 Billion Due to COBOL
A recent paper analyzed the causal effects of delays in updating unemployment insurance systems written in COBOL. States that used COBOL to process UI claims had a 4.4% decline in total card consumption compared to states that didn’t use COBOL. The author’s Fermi estimate is a $181B decline in real GDP due to COBOL.
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Before investing in SEO, evaluate whether or not it has the potential to have a large impact on your business. Not every business benefits in the same magnitude from SEO. The way to tell is by seeing if there is already a big market and your site has existing authority.