We do not yet know what we have not discovered and trying to know the unknowable (prophesy) leads to pessimism. A Malthusian catastrophe ends up being wrong because it does not predict knowledge that resulted in efficiency of food production. Similarly the pessimism of energy economics is error laden because it can not predict what new discoveries we will make in social and political systems or new defenses.
Why does prophesy lead to pessimism? Trying to make a prediction based on knowledge bounded by what is currently known, then extrapolating, will result in plenty of examples to be pessimistic about. The problem with these kinds of predictions is that it’s based on unknown knowledge which can change the course of things entirely.
See also:
- Trends are not explanations and trends are prophecies if they involve the prediction of knowledge
- Techno-optimism is rational
- The Beginning of Infinity
- Artificial intelligence garners intense fear and pessimism
Links to this note
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Holding Two Seemingly Contradictory Ideas in One’s Head
There is tremendous power in being able to simultaneously hold two ideas in one’s head that appear to be in opposition. Contradictions can create boundaries on thoughts—it’s usually unpleasant to have cognitive dissonance—and can lead to dogma. I’ve found that being able to stick with it, despite the discomfort, can be very powerful.
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Predictions About the Future Don’t Account for New Knowledge
One of the reasons making broad, sweeping predictions about the future tend to be wrong is that it does not account for the creation of new knowledge. Trends are not explanations and without an explanatory model of how knowledge will change (i.e. creativity) predictions such as the end of the world are just another example of a Malthusian catastrophe.
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An English physician once described radium as “the unknown god”. This was at a time where radiation and it’s effects were still being discovered. Radium was being used to treat all manner of ailment, thinking that if it was helpful in large amounts for treating cancer, it must also keep you healthy in small amounts.
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Conjecture Is Vital to Product Development
Product development tends to overlook the importance of conjecture. Lean startup and similar ‘lean’ movements create a culture of empiricism—only that which can be measured must be true. This might make sense for optimizing mature products, but a culture of empiricism leads to an incremental approach to building new products and, at best, leads to finding a local optima.