Probability of a Recession (2022 Q3)

The probability of a recession in the near term based on estimates from economists at investment banks.

• Deloitte: 15%
• Morgan Stanley: 30%
• Goldman Sachs: 30%
• JPMorgan Chase: 35%
• Citigroup: 50%
• Deutche Bank: Likely
• Wells Fargo: Likely

(Source Dealbook)

See also:

• How long will a recession last?
• Running a startup during a recession

Links to this note

• Running a Startup During a Recession

  Startups are a microcosm of the economy and we can observe that things are changing quickly towards a recession footing. The effects of inflation on valuations are readily apparent, but we also see that things were too good to be true and investors and late stage companies exploited it.

• Probability of a Recession (2023 Q1)

  A Wall Street Journal poll of economists found that the probability of a recession in the next 12 months is 61%, down slightly from 63% from October 2022 and significantly higher than the 2022 Q3 roundup.