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Resilient systems that can absorb shocks (short peaks of rapid change) have multiple layers that move at different speeds. For example, technology is a fast moving layer—it changes very quickly. In contrast, culture is a slower moving layer which, over the course of time, is nudged along over a longer time period.

In fast to slow order, we can model civilization as fashion/art, commerce, infrastructure, governance, culture, and nature.

See also:

• The Clock of the Long Now introduced this model and talks about how violations in this framework cause problems e.g. radical fast change in governance like the USSR.
• Amara’s Law might explain why this is a difficult model to understand
• Doughnut economic model

During the rapid expansion westward in America between 1790 and 1830, the average adult drank more than nine gallons of spirits per year. Most were drinking to get drunk and most of the drinking was done at home due to isolation on the frontier. Even in the eastern cities, industrialization caused widespread loneliness and anxiety from labor changes.

In modern day America, sales of alcohol during the COVID-19 pandemic have increased significantly. Just about all of that consumption happening at home because bars are closed. Americans are drinking more, more frequently, and alone.

Read America Has a Drinking Problem.

See also:

• One reason for the uptick in alcohol consumption is that activities we relied on for relief from every day stress and anxiety are no longer available to us (including drinking socially)

Most early founder-led sales will come from the founder’s personal network. Once you are bootstrapped with a few customers, you should also receive referrals from them (if you are not, that’s a signal that you don’t have something people love). For B2B startups charging high 5 figures, low 6 figures per installation, you should be able to close all of the sales you need (learning and adjusting along the way) to get from seed stage to raising your series A.

See also:

• The number one job of a startup CEO is finding product market fit, getting good feedback early requires asking for money
• This shouldn’t be outsourced, founder led sales helps identify product problems
• The path from concept to product is an annealing process, there is danger in committing too soon to the wrong buyer, pricing, and packaging

A study published in Nature found that intermittent fasting improved long-term memory, neurogenesis, and longevity (increased expression of Klotho) in mice. They found that intermittent fasting (every other day feeding) is superior to calorie restriction (10% less calories).

It’s unclear how well this relates to human adults, but it’s interesting to see the cognitive effects of intermittent fasting being studied (as opposed to weight loss).

A poll done by Morning Consult on behalf of Bloomberg News in May 2021 showed that 39% of U.S. adults would consider quitting if they weren’t able to work from home. Millenials and GenZ respondents showed 49%.

Update April 2022: 64% of global workers said they would consider quitting rather than return to the office.

See also:

• A different survey found nearly half of employees are likely to move to work remotely
• And another found two-thirds of remote workers want to continue to work remotely
• Not everyone can work from home, see inequality of remote work

Fields that exhibit tournaments with asymmetric and convex payouts favor high-variance strategies (variance from the benchmark mean).

For example, fund managers that end up on the Morningstar list (top fund managers) tend to be founder-managed funds with highly concentrated positions (they also underperform in later periods). High variance from an index benchmark is favorable because if you make it to the top fund manager list you will receive many more clients and make a lot on fields.

Another example is baseball where, before Babe Ruth, the prevailing strategy was high-contact (hitting many singles). Babe Ruth showed a high-variance strategy by swinging for the fences every time. His failure rate was much higher (he led the league in strikeouts), but he also overwhelmingly led the league in home runs making him one of the most valuable players in the league. (A corollary in recent times is the rise of three pointers in basketball).

Other fields that exhibit this incentive for high-variance strategies include politics (making outrageous statements until something sticks has little downside these days) and venture capital (losses are capped, but gains are not).

Read Swinging for the Fences.

See also:

• Warren Buffet talks about the lollapalooza effect as what you are looking for as an investor (outsized gains from the culmination of several factors acting in concert)
• While fund managers seeking large gains use highly concentrated positions, something similar can be said about product development—a cathedral for creation a bazaar for growth
• The Economics of Superstars also describes this phenomenon (but more mathematically)

Many companies are moving to a hybrid remote setup when it’s safe for employees to return to offices. Some will allow employees to choose when they work from home and when they work from the office. However, this leads to an in-group (people in the office) and an out-group (people working from home more often).

This is especially problematic for women with young children who want to work from home full-time 50% more than men. Employees working from home have a 50% lower rate of promotion after 21 months.

Read Don’t Let Employees Pick Their WFH Days from HBR.

See also:

• In-group favoritism
• Two-thirds of remote workers want to continue to work remotely
• Inequality of remote work

According to a recent survey by WayUp that measured how job seekers felt in the current COVID-19 job climate, Black and Hispanic/Latino job seekers were 145% more likely to be concerned about being capable of doing a job remotely compared to White job seekers. Lack of physical space, access to broadband, and having more people in the household are contributing factors.

See also:

• Blacks and Hispanics have less access to broadband internet compared to Whites
• Inequality of remote work

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A 2019 Pew Research survey found that Black and Hispanic people have less access to broadband internet than White people (66% 61% vs 79% respectively). This digital divide is becoming more pronounced due to trends in remote work.

See also:

• Minority job candidates are significantly more worried they about being able to work remotely
• Inequality of remote work

As a general rule of thumb, according to this article in the NY Times, when working in another country you should stay less than 6 months to avoid having to file a tax return in both countries. Some countries have visa programs that allow you to stay for 6 months or more without becoming subject to local taxes (Bermuda, Estonia, Iceland, Costa Rica, and more).

There are misconceptions that companies allowing remote work means you can work move around and work from anywhere. That is not the case. Having employees move around constantly poses several challenges for the company (security, taxes, registration, insurance, HR compliance) and teammates (poor internet connection, timezone issues, focus).

Working remotely should default to meaning working from home. Working from coffee shops and the like is fine within reason for the role (you probably shouldn’t have lots of sales calls using coffee shop wifi), but consistency in location is ideal for employers and teammates.

See also:

• Trailing tax liability
• Nearly half of employees are likely to move to work remotely
• Organizational support of remote work correlates with reported productivity

Mindfulness helps decrease the feeling of being self-conscious. This makes sense because the practice reveals the illusory self and how everything arises in consciousness. Feeling self-conscious is like any other feeling, an appearance in consciousness which we are already free of.

Why Is Everything Liberal argues that corporations are left-leaning even though half of people vote conservative because liberals care more. They support this claim with examples like protests, friendship, and dating preferences. At the peak of the Tea Party movement hundreds of thousands came out to protest compared to millions for the Women’s March and Black Lives Matter. In dating and friendship studies, the author shows that liberals have a more difficult time being friends or dating someone who voted for Trump than the reverse.

See also:

• Everything is political furthers the author’s point that corporations always have some political leaning (internally and externally)
• The minority rule

According to a recent study, people over the age of 80 that were given the second dose of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine 12 weeks after the first dose ended up with over three times as many antibodies after the second dose. While this study was only for the Pfizer vaccine it could significantly change the vaccination strategy of many countries.

This is another example that clinical trials of the COVID-19 vaccine was not designed to discover the optimal regimen for public health and we should expect to keep on learning new things.

In a recent sleep study of 5,804 people, researchers observed that those who are married (in a co-sleeping arrangement) showed significantly higher levels of total and relative REM sleep as compared to those never married. REM sleep is associated with better memory, lower stress, better mental health, and longevity.

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Books have the ability to condense and transfer information efficiently. While some things can’t be learned from reading, reading gives you the benefit of other peoples' experience. Even if it’s lossy, building familiarity can turn something that felt opaque and scary into something you feel prepared to encounter.

See also:

• Reading is the transformation of a linked list of ideas into a tree which explains why it can be lossy when not done well
• Flesch Reading Ease Test show that you probably need to get past an 8th grade reading level in order to unlock the power of books

Sales are comprised of three thirds. One third of sales you will get no matter what as long as you talk to enough people. Another third are sales that will never be made. The last third is up for grabs and that’s what makes a good salesperson.

Three calls is all you should spend to make a sale. If you can’t close on the third call you are not going to make the sale and worse, they lead may run you around.

Factoring in the sales cycle length, you’ll see that sales you make now are from prospecting months earlier.

Scheduling the second appointment during the first appointment reduces the sales cycle.

Sales is a funnel so you can do better if you understand your ratio of appointments to prospects to sales. Sales people get into trouble when they don’t replenish their prospects fast enough leading to peaks and valleys. Figure out how many calls you need to make each day to meet your sales goals. The length of the sales cycle also contributes to this (e.g. if you stop prospecting and it takes six months to book revenue you’ll end up with a great month six months from now, but nothing before or after).

You need to do prospecting every single day.

Hearing ‘no’ means your are getting closer to a yes. Rather than be discouraged think about the ratios of appointments to prospects to sales. Each no is progress to a sale if you know your ratios.

Cold call scripts

Having a script for the cold call frees you up to think about what the customer is saying rather than what you are going to say.

Get their attention and remember people respond in kind. You want to start a conversation not a yes or no. The best way is simply, “Good morning <name of person>.”

Then tell them who you are and your company briefly. For example, “this is Alex from My Corp, <what you do in one sentence>”.

Give them a reason for your call which is always to set an appointment. You need to give a compelling reason to set the appointment. For example, “I’m calling today is to set an appointment and tell you about <product> and how it can <benefit>.”

Make a questioning or qualifying statement that will result in a favorable response. For example, “<persons name> I’m sure that you, like <reference customers> are interested in <primary benefit>.”

Finally, set the appointment by making a specific appointment time (you don’t want this to be another discussion about whether or not you will meet). For instance, “That’s great! Then we should get together. How about Tuesday at 3pm?” Is better than “what time works best for you?”

Tips

Use a mirror and smile to relax you larynx.

Time how long it takes to get through a call and block out enough time on your calendar each week to do it. This appointment with yourself guarantees your income.

Practice with someone.

Track the number of dials, calls, and appointments you get from them. Know your numbers so you can analyze and improve them.

Stand up when you make calls to sound more natural.

Use a landline instead of a cellphone so it sounds better, doesn’t drop, and isn’t distracting with the environment.

Turning around common responses

“I’m happy with what I have” don’t say “I understand”, say “that’s great you are <action from something you are happy with>, a lot of other companies like <reference customers> said the same thing before they had a chance to see how <thing you do> would compliment what they are doing in-house. We should get together. How does <specific date and time> sound?”. By being happy with what they have immediately qualifies them as a potential customer and rather than give up you create an opportunity to show them.

When someone says “I’m too busy” or to call them back later they are just politely blowing you off. Instead of saying “what’s a better time to call?”, say “the only reason I’m calling is to set up an appointment”. This likely raises another response like “I’m not interested” which you can turn around (as mentioned previously).

If someone says “mail me something” it implies they will take a look and have a conversation with you about it, but that doesn’t happen. In reality they will just forget about it. To respond say, “can’t we just get together? How about next Tuesday at 3pm?”. This will likely raise another response that you know how to handle.

The second response is the one that matters. Once you properly handle the first you’ll get another which gives you more information to allow you to turn it around into an appointment.

‘The ledge’ is a question that helps you regain control of the conversation. For example, if they say they are happy with what they have, ask them “are you using <company>?” They will naturally correct you so you can follow up with “we really should get together then.” If they say they are the wrong person (as long as you are sure they are the right person) ask say, “I’m just curious, what is it you do?”. This will either raise a new objection (which you can turn around) or lead to them telling you who the right person is so you can get a referral.

Third party and referral calls

A variation of the script is to use a reference in the opening. When you state the reason for your call (to get an appointment) include a third party reference like, “the reason for my call is that I just finished a successful <thing you do> with <notable reference customer>. In fact it <major benefit>. I’d like to set an appointment at 3pm Tuesday to tell you about the success we had with <notable reference customer>.”

Another variation is the referral call for when you cold called someone else and they were definitely not the right person but they told you who was. Instead of giving a long explanation just say “ hi <person>, I’m <who you are what your company does>. The reason I’m calling is that I just spoke with <name of person referring> and they suggested i give you a call to set up an appointment. How does Tuesday at 3pm work for you?”. This will lead to a response or objection you can handle as usual.

Leaving messages

When leaving a voicemail you can use the same third party reference from before. “Hi <person> this is <who you are> from <company> my phone number is <your phone number>. It’s regarding <reference customer>. When they call you back you go right into the reference pitch.

A high probability way of getting a return call is to leave a name. When you leave a message you say, “Hi <name> this is <who you are> from <company> I’m calling in reference to <name of someone who called before>.” They will call back and you can ask if something went wrong (usually a manager does this) this can lead to an opportunity for a ledge (we really should get together…). You can have a colleague make the initial call or you can call back old leads and leave their name. If pressed by a gatekeeper say “it’s a long story”.

If you can’t reach someone only make four attempts in one month once per week. Tell them about the last time you spoke and offer a specific time to meet. Even better, if you have a meeting in the area use that to put the ball in their court. For example, “I’m in <place> meeting with <company> which is 20 minutes away. I’d like to get together. Does <specific day and time> work?”

Cold calling be email doesn’t work. It’s best used as a way to follow up after a call with specific actions.

Follow up calls

“Good morning <person>, this is <who you are> from <company>. The reason I’m calling you today is because when we spoke in <time you last called and they said they were too busy> you suggested that I give you a call <when they told you to call back> to set up an appointment. Does next Tuesday at 3pm work for you?”

If they ask you to call months from now don’t wait. 30 days later say “I was just thinking about you” with an anecdote and “we should get together”. This can lead to a reminder and people respond in kind.

You can also tell them you will be in their area and you’d like to get together before then.

Around 10% of follow up calls will result in appointments.

The sales process

The objective of each step in the process is to get to the next step. Even if someone says wow that was a great meeting it doesn’t mean anything if you don’t get to the next step.

1. The opening stage - get to know them, short and sweet
2. The information stage - find information you need to make the right presentation. The key is finding out what people do, why, and how you can help them do what they want to do. The most important to understand is, “what are you trying to accomplish here?” which may take a few questions to get to. This stage is 75% of the sales process.
3. The presentation stage - present the case to buy your product using the information you gathered in the previous step. Don’t mistake demonstrations for presentations —the former is for gathering information, the latter is to close.
4. The closing stage - by now you’ve made the right presentation that shows how you can help them do what they do better. Simply say “Makes sense to me; what do you think?”

A book about how to set up a cold calling sales funnel by Stephan Schiffman.

See also:

• Literary Notes

Good salespeople know that a third of their sales come from doing nothing at all. If you talk to enough people, some will buy it. Like the people who sell hats in Times Square, merely asking if you want to buy one results in sales.

See also:

• Just making calls (no zero days) will result in a third of sales
• From Cold Calling Techniques

In physics, calculating a predicted value for gravity at the particle level for a given event is difficult, but there appears to be a relationship between forces that enables a neat hack to simplify the calculation. By doubling the ‘kinematic term’ as if they were pairs of gravitons, you can make accurate predictions without calculating the strong force. When applied to Black Holes this also works—they act as if they were pairs of charged particles.

Could this be another type of symmetry in quantum forces?

Read How Gravity Is a Double Copy of Other Forces.

While the exact details are unknown, Godel claimed to have discovered a contradiction in the US Constitution that could allow the democracy to be legally turned into a dictatorship. There is much speculation about what the flaw could be and according to some accounts he told Einstein who had to calm him down.

See also:

• This is an example of Legal Informatics which attempts to formalize legal documents into data and math
• Gödel’s incompleteness theorem