• The Stock Market Boom During the Pandemic Is Due to Increased Savings

    Personal income was higher, lost wages were offset by unemployment benefits and stimulus programs. Consumers spent less on services (hotels, air travel), more on durable goods (e.g. better home office equipment), and saved 173% more money than last year. More people are buying homes, in part due to low interest rates and the pandemic. Low interest rates also investors into higher risk asset classes (they can no longer get the same returns from bonds for example) which pushes more capital into the stock market (lowering the federal funds rate causes all asset classes increase in value).

    The stock market surge is fueled by people that escaped the economic damage from the pandemicβ€”those in higher paying jobs that can operate during the shutdown. In fact, some businesses are booming and the rise in wages from say a bonus due to strong company performance can offset the lost wages of low paid front-line workers.

    Read the article from the NY Times.


  • Measure Progress Rather Than Outcomes

    When you are feeling overwhelmed by something you are working on, measure the progress you are making rather than the final outcome. This helps to break down the larger work into actions you can do and control rather than fixating on the size of the endeavor. For example, rather than focus on having the perfect startup idea measure your progress by the number of things you learned, users you interviewed, and notes you’ve written.


  • Heuristics for Hiring in a New State

    Setting up operations in a new state has many requirements and can result in tax obligations. Tax, accounting, and legal professionals want to support the needs of the businesses, but also want to efficiently use resources. They often come up with heuristics to help guide the front-office when it comes to hiring in new U.S. states. For example, “Don’t hire someone in a state we have no other employees in unless you would be willing to give them a $30k signing bonus” and “Don’t hire unless you plan to hire 10 people in that state”.

    See also:


  • Trading Money for Time Is Leverage on Focus

    The amount one can do is limited by the number of hours in a day. It’s zero sum, focusing one’s time on something means not focusing on something else. It’s useful to think of money as a way of leveraging one’s time by spending it to eliminate tasks one must do. For example, using a wash and fold service instead of going to a laundromat and doing it oneself will save about an hour of time that can be repurposed. In that way, money for time is leverage on one’s ability to focus on the right things.


  • Startups Oscillate Between Operating Ignorance and Normalization

    As companies grow their operations become more complex and they must constantly make changes. Startups prioritize speed and solving the most important problem, even if it is in exchange for future liability. A useful framing is to think of it as moving between two statesβ€”operating ignorance and normalization.

    Operating ignorance is both real ignorance or intentional. For example, a startup may hire someone in another state and not realize they need to register with the state’s employment agencies (real ignorance). Or they may willfully ignore employment requirements for now because the likelihood of being audited is low and they accept paying fines at a future date is not worth the short term hassle.

    Normalization is putting these operations into compliance and doing it right. To reuse the example about employment, the company decides it is time to do the proper registration, pay back taxes and fines, and operate in compliance.

    See also:


  • Stock and Flow

    Stock and flow is an economics concept referring to static value (stock) and transactions over a period of time (flow). This is a useful metaphor for producing content on the internet.

    Flow is like the ephemeral feed of content we create on social media and forums. Stock is the evergreen content we create like blog posts and essays. Flow spreads quickly (viral sharing), but is short lived (pages out of the feed in hours). Stock spreads slowly (Google search), but grows steadily over time.

    See also:


  • How a Seed Round Works

    Companies need to be incorporated and founder stock must be issued before executing a SAFE and taking any investment. There should be some time between issuing/paying for founder stock and receiving the investment, to ensure the founder stock purchased was at the correct price (rather than at the price the investors paid) as this is a potential tax issue.

    They first step is to nail down a lead investor. They will set the terms for the rest of the round (usually everyone participating in the round gets the same terms to keep things fair).

    You should share a high-level plan for how much you are looking to raise. Most investors will expect that you will give up 20% or less for a round so you shouldn’t low-ball yourself by saying you are raising X amount at Y percent.

    If they are ready to commit, a lead investor will offer a term sheet (usually for a SAFE convertible note) for the largest amount of the total round. You negotiate terms (there’s really only a few terms in SAFEs) and then their lawyers send you a SAFE to review with your lawyers before signing. The money gets wired to your bank account on a funding date.

    After closing the lead investor they help you fill out the rest of the round by providing introductions (angel investors, other funds), but it’s probably better to find angel investors yourself with people of strategic importance or have contacts in a specific industry (angels have incentive to help you and, since there is an abundance of angels, you might as well get the additional benefit of expertise).


  • False Precision

    When exact numbers are used to express something that can not be described with exact numbers (e.g. 15% smarter) this is fake precision. When making calculations using data of a certain precision, one can’t claim a result with more significant figures than the original precision (this often happens with floating point math).


  • Key Considerations for How Much to Raise in a Seed Round

    The key considerations for how much to raise in a seed round are:

    • What are the milestones? (e.g. MVP product, iterate with early customers, early team count and makeup)
    • Working backwards from there, what will you need to do it? How much runway?
    • What do you need from the funds / angels in the round? (e.g. intros, access to portfolio companies, expertise)
    • What similar deals are being made and what are those terms?
    • What are the additional expenses or timelines that are needed for the product? (e.g. manufacturing, inventory, professional service fees)

  • Differences Between PEO and EOR

    An EOR is much more expensive because they take on all of the liability and compliance on behalf of the company. Company’s use an EOR to hire employees globally where they do not have a local legal entity.

    A PEO is a co-employment model and helps the company set up the compliance, tax, payroll, benefits, and HR processes, but tend to operate more as a consultancy. Company’s use a PEO to outsource HR functions where they have their own local legal entity. Most company’s find it too expensive to have a PEO after 100 employees.

    See also: